The global economy may have passed its peak rate of growth, but a sustained expansion appears likely. Economy/macro backdrop: Past peak growth, but global expansion should persist See our interactive chart presentation (PDF) for an in-depth analysis. We expect the constructive US mid-cycle backdrop to prevail during 2022, but less favorable monetary policy and a host of other uncertainties raise the odds of higher market volatility. Real estate stocks, commodities, and high-yield bonds all posted solid 2021 returns.Īsset prices experienced some intra-quarter ups and downs as markets grappled with an uneven global expansion, high inflation, and the beginning of a shift toward less accommodative monetary policy. Investment-grade bonds finished 2021 in the red amid the modest rise in interest rates, while non-US equity categories lagged as emerging-market stocks dropped due in part to China's downturn. Large cap US stocks staged a year-end upswing, underpinning another positive year for global stock prices, but performance was mixed across categories. Market summary: Strong Q4 rally caps off banner year for US stocks Long-term inflation, policy, and profit risks warrant high levels of strategic portfolio diversification.
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